UKCP18 Demonstrator

Case studies to demonstrate how the Met Office’s UKCP18 data can be applied for flood and drought risk assessments in Yorkshire

iCASP’s first project helped organisations in Yorkshire to prepare for the publication of the UK’s new climate change projections in 2018 (UKCP18) produced by the UK Meteorological Office (Met Office) and partners.

Organisations such as water companies and local authorities draw on these scientific assessments of the changing climate when they make long-term risk management decisions. The UK projections published in 1998, 2002 and 2009 were updated again in 2018 with some significant changes. For instance, there is more local detail and information on climate extremes and uncertainty.

This iCASP project was selected as a demonstrator project by the Met Office. In collaboration with the UK Met Office, which is responsible for producing the projections, the project gave organisations, including Yorkshire Water, the National Farmers’ Union and Leeds City Council, an opportunity to rehearse ways of using the updated information in their operations and strategies. The project focused on the application of UKCP18 to the way specific organisations usually assess risks from surface water flooding and drought. It used capacity building workshops to prepare six iCASP Springboard Partners to use the new information in the context of their day to day responsibilities. They worked with the Met Office’s chief scientist to explore the implications for regional organisations who need to make decisions based on the impacts of future climate change.

The partner organisations were able to make recommendations about the information they would find most useful, how the new information could be formulated and presented and the kind of support they would need to get the best use from it.

Building on the success of this project, a one day UKCP18 forum was held for organisations from different sectors of the regional economy who need to use UK climate projections for resilience planning and long-term business strategies.


Environment Agency
JBA Group and JBA Trust
Leeds City Council
National Farmers’ Union
UK Met Office
University of Leeds
Yorkshire Water
Yorkshire Wildlife Trust

Project Team

Prof. Suraje Dessai, Prof. Piers Forster, Dr. Amanda Maycock & Dr. Mark Trigg, – University of Leeds
Ben Rabb & James Norman iCASP Impact Translation Fellows
James Copeland – National Farmers’ Union
Amanda Crossfield – Yorkshire Water
Robert Curtis – Leeds City Council
Gail Hammond – Environment Agency
Prof. Robert Lamb – JBA Group and JBA Trust
Prof. Jason Lowe & Dr. Fai Fung – UK Met Office
Dr. Tim Thom – Yorkshire Wildlife Trust


May 2017 – October 2018


Two case studies were developed as part of the project, one on Drought and one on Rainfall and Flooding. Each has a step by step guide for organisations to use if they need to update existing planning and assessment processes using UKCP18 data.

UKCP18 Drought Case Study

UKCP18 Flood Case Study

A suite of Met Office leaflets which highlight how UKCP18 can be used in different contexts and resources produced by other organisations for UKCP18 are also available on the Met Office Website page .

The leaflet featuring the iCASP work is available to download here.