How will climate change impact land-use resilience in the North York Moors over the next 50 – 80 years?
Why was this project needed?
North York Moors National Park Authority needs to know how climate change (temperature and precipitation) will impact on land use and habitat across the North York Moors over the next 50 – 80 years to be able to plan how to manage the park effectively. This includes how vegetation and specific upland species – particularly birds – will be affected and how land use may change.
What did the project involve?
The study used tools developed by researchers at the University of Leeds and partners such as the PESERA erosion model, together with existing climate model predictions (e.g. UKCP18), and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways, to help understand how the system is likely to change in the region over the next 50-80 years.
An evaluation of potential economic opportunities under both scenarios is being used to stimulate debate and discussion with the relevant stakeholders about nature recovery and land management in the National Park.
A synthesis of the relevant literature has been produced indicating key knowledge gaps and how the North York Moors is an outlier compared to many other UK upland areas in terms of potential impacts of climate change and the relatively dry conditions of the area. There is a lack of scientific understanding of organo-mineral soils and how they respond to land management or climate interventions. Such soils dominate the National Park
Assessment of future scenarios have used existing ecological integrity modelling using the Omniscape connectivity analysis toolkit. Outputs from the toolkit will help inform possible future land use patterns, at both regional and local scale, that maximise resilience to warmer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns while highlighting the likely risks associated with a ‘business as usual’ approach. Model outputs will be used to evaluate the likely future patterns and fortunes of iconic upland bird species such as red grouse and curlew.
The project is working closely with stakeholder groups to ensure the participation of a representative sample of organisations, local people, and visitors.
Artistic renders of selected real-world landscapes and views under the different scenarios generated by the research have been created by a University of Leeds artist to help stimulate debate and discussion.
Future work
If you would be interested in funding us to undertake similar assessments for your own land or area of interest, please contact icasp@leeds.ac.uk
Project team
University of Leeds
- Professor Steve Carver
- Dr Cat Moody
- Dr Brian Irvine
- Professor Joseph Holden
- Dr Jonathan Carruthers-Jones
- Dr James McKay
University of Manchester
- Dr Jonny Huck